According to 538, Biden has a lead in the average of polls according to 538 of 4.9 percentage points but far more importantly is at 49.7% in the average of the polls. If Biden gets to 50.1% in Pennsylvania, then Biden wins Pennsylvania. Since Biden is at 49.9% with a lead of 6.9 percentage points in Michigan in the average of the polls and Biden is at 50.7% with a lead of 6.9 percentage points in Wisconsin, then Biden is essentially at 50% or better in both states and unbeatable in both states so long as we turn out our voters in both states. Adding Pennsylvania to those two states and the 232 electoral college votes which is the sum of the value of the electoral college votes of the states that Hillary won in 2016 puts Biden at 278 electoral college votes and he wins.
The point is that winning Pennsylvania likely wins the electoral college for Biden. Pennsylvania is the leading tipping point state. Obviously, NOTHING IS GUARANTEED. We MUST GET OUT OUR VOTE ! But if we do that, then we win.
Hillary’s profound weakness was that her average percentage of the vote in the average of the polls in Michigan was 47%, in Wisconsin was 46.8%, and in Pennsylvania was 46.8%. She never got to 50% in the average of the polls. She won 47% of the vote in Michigan, 46.5% of the vote in Wisconsin, and 47.5% of the vote in Pennsylvania (and her lead in Michigan was only 3.6 percentage points and her lead in Pennsylvania was only 2.1 percentage points). That was her problem. Biden is almost at 50% in Michigan (49.9%) and over 50% in Wisconsin (50.7%) and almost at 50% in Pennsylvania (49.7%).
Trump didn’t get to 49% in any of the three states of Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania in 2016. However, being at or above 50% in all three states wins the electoral college vote for Biden. Biden’s not only one tenth of one percent away from fifty percent in Michigan, but again he has a lead of 6.9 percentage points in the average of the polls (Clinton’s lead in the average of the polls was 3.6) . So, Michigan is in excellent shape and if we turn out our vote there in Michigan, I don’t see how Biden doesn’t get at least one tenth of the remaining vote and get to 50% there in Michigan and remember Hillary Clinton won exactly the percentage of the vote that she had in the average of the polls .
So, again, Biden wins Michigan if we turn out our vote. Biden is already over 50.7% in the average of the polls in Wisconsin and the difference in the percentage of the vote that HRC won in 2016 in Wisconsin and her share of the vote in the election in Wisconsin was only three tenths of one percent. Even the state polls in 2016 in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were accurate. In Pennsylvania, Hillary won seven tenths of one percent more of the vote than her share in the polls ; her share of the vote in Pennsylvania in the average of the polls was 46.8% and her share of the vote in the election in Pennsylvania was 47.5%. It is not a pollster’s job to determine how to allocate the undecided vote which broke heavily for Trump. So, the state polls of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were accurate in 2016.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
states |
hrc poll |
hrc |
Trump |
trump poll |
hrc diff |
biden |
trump |
margin |
to 50 |
MI |
47.0 |
47.0 |
47.3 |
43.4 |
0.0 |
49.9 |
43.0 |
6.9 |
.1 |
Wi |
46.8 |
46.5 |
47.2 |
40.3 |
0.3 |
50.7 |
43.8 |
6.9 |
over |
pa |
46.8 |
47.5 |
48.2 |
44.7 |
0.7 |
49.7 |
44.8 |
4.9 |
.3 |
.Let’s consider the chart above. We can see that the difference between Clinton’s polls and her actual share of the vote in these states was very small, less than 1 percent in each case. We can see that Trump didn’t get above 48.2% of the vote in any of the three states in the actual election. Finally, notice that Biden is only one tenth of one percent from fifty percent in Michigan, he is over 50% in Wisconsin, and he is only three tenths of one percent from fifty percent in Pennsylvania. If Biden gets to 50% + 1 vote in all three states, then Biden wins the electoral college. He effectively shuts Trumps out. Biden is extremely close to getting to 50%+1 vote in all three states. My goal is for us to get Biden over 50%+1 in Pennsylvania.
What I am writing is that we have a chance right now to land a death blow to the Trump campaign if we can just boost Biden to 50% in Pennsylvania. He is so close, 49.7%. He only needs three tenths of one percent to get to 50%. Let’s go for the kill and try to get Biden over 50%+1 in Pennsylvania (and Michigan for that matter) so that Biden can shut Trump out of the electoral college.
.Now, in the next two pictures, you will see two 270 to win graphs. Biden is narrowly leading in both the rural electoral college vote in Maine and leading with a noticeable margin in the second congressional district of Nebraska (NE 02). The sum of the value of the electoral college votes of the states that Hillary Clinton won is 232, but she had five faithless electors which is why her electoral college vote total is 227 (at the bottom, below the graphic they point out how many faithless electors there were for Clinton and in which states) . We don’t have any reason to believe that this will happen this time around. Biden is extremely close to 50%+1 (one tenth of one percent from 50% ) in Michigan and so I have assigned Michigan to Biden. Biden is over 50% in Wisconsin and so I have assigned Wisconsin to Biden. This means that Biden 260 electoral college votes. That’s the situation in the first electoral college vote graph.
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.In this graphic, I have not assigned Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas or Georgia. Notice that with any of those states, since Biden is at 260 electoral college votes, Biden surpasses 270 electoral college votes. Arizona (11)puts him at 271 (again with Maine’s electoral college vote), Pennsylvania (20) puts him at 280 electoral college votes , Georgia (16) puts him at 276 electoral college votes, Ohio (18) puts him at 278 electoral college votes, North Carolina (15) puts him at 275 electoral college votes, Florida (29) puts him at 289 electoral college votes, and Texas (38) puts him at 298 electoral college votes. In Arizona, Biden is leading by 3.6 percentage points and at 48.5% in the average of the polls and a favorite to win Arizona, in Pennsylvania Biden is leading by 4.9 percentage points and at 49.7% in the average of the polls and a favorite to win Pennsylvania, Biden is a slight favorite in Florida, he is a slight favorite in North Carolina, he is barely a favorite in Ohio, and competitive in Georgia and Texas. Again, if Biden wins any of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Florida or North Carolina, then he wins the electoral college and our national nightmare is over.
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.Here, I have simply added added Pennsylvania to Biden giving him 280 electoral college votes and the win.
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.It is clear, therefore, that we have many paths to 270 electoral college votes. However, the most obvious path is through winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. We have some good back up plans as the above links and information make clear, but this is the easiest and most clear path for Biden to 270 electoral college votes. We also remember that truly we should have won these states in 2016. After all, President Obama won more votes in each of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2012 than Donald Trump did in 2016 despite population growth. Biden is so close to fifty percent in his average of the polls in Pennsylvania. If we can get Biden to 50%+1 in Pennsylvania, then it’s over and Biden wins the electoral college vote. Getting Biden to 50%+1 in Pennsylvania is a death blow to the Trump campaign. So, I am asking you to please do anything you can (if you can’t because of health reasons or other reasons, it is completely understandable and please don’t) to help Biden win Pennsylvania. This is our opportunity to put a spike in their campaign and to end this disaster once and for all.
Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping point state at 32.3, followed by Florida 11.6, Wisconsin 9.3, Michigan 9.2 , Arizona 5.8, North Carolina 4.9, Ohio 4.6, Minnesota 3.5%, Nevada 3.0, Colorado 2.8, New Hampshire 2.2, Georgia 1.7, Texas 1.5 , and Virginia 1.3 .
States with the narrowest margins are projected to be : Texas won by Trump by 3.6, Iowa won by Trump by 2.3, Georgia won by Trump by 2.1 , and the rest of the narrowest margin states are all forecast to be won by Biden: Ohio .4 , North Carolina by .8 (Biden forecast to get 50% of the vote), Maine’s second congressional district (the rural one) for Biden by .8 , Florida by 1.4 (Biden forecast to get 50.3% of vote) , Nebraska’s second congressional district (Omaha) by 2.3, Arizona by 2.7 (Biden forecast to get 50.7% of the vote) , Pennsylvania by 4.5 (Biden forecast to get 51.9% of the vote), Wisconsin by 6.2 (Biden forecast to get 52.6% of the vote) , Nevada by 6.4 (Biden forecast to get 52.4% of the vote) , New Hampshire by 6.5 (Biden forecast to get 52.7 % of the vote) , Michigan by 6.9 (Biden forecast to get 52.9% of the vote) , Minnesota by 8.1 (Biden forecast to get 53.2% of the vote), Colorado by 9.1 (Biden forecast to get 53.6% of the vote) and the rest of the blue states are all forecast to be won by double digits by Biden. This would given Biden 353 electoral college votes and Trump 185 electoral college votes.
.Joe Biden himself will be making campaign stops to speak in Ohio and Pennsylvania after the debate.
Washington (CNN)Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will embark on a campaign trip across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania via train that focuses on the economy and working families following this week's first presidential debate in Cleveland. Biden is currently leading Trump in more than a handful of polls taken in Pennsylvania, with the former vice president ahead of Trump by more than eight points in three of them.
To make phone calls for Joe Biden ! To text for Joe Biden ! Team Joe Social Media Tool Kit !
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Here are 15 outstanding US Senate candidates !
1. Governor John Hickenlooper (Colorado)
2. Captain Mark Kelly (Arizona)
3. Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon (Maine)
4. Lieutenant Colonel Cal Cunningham (North Carolina)
5. Theresa Greenfield (Iowa)
6. Jaime Harrison (South Carolina)
7. Governor Steve Bullock (Montana)
8. Dr. (physician) Barbara Bollier (Kansas)
9. Jon Ossoff (Georgia)
10. Reverend Raphael Warnock (Georgia)
11. Dr. Al Gross (Alaska)
12. Major MJ Hegar (combat veteran ! Texas)
13. Lieutenant Colonel Amy McGrath (combat veteran ! Kentucky)
14. Mike Espy (Mississippi)
15. Senator Doug Jones (Alabama)
If you can only donate to one candidate, then I would humbly ask you to vote for one of the following three candidates because they are the candidates most likely to give us our fifth senate seat win.
1. Theresa Greenfield
2. Jaime Harrison
3. Steve Bullock .
If you can afford to donate to five candidates, then I would recommend you pick one of the above candidates and then donate to the four candidates who already have a very good chance of winning so that we make doubly sure that we get all five.
1. Governor John Hickenlooper
2. Captain Mark Kelly
3. Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon
4. Cal Cunningham
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